If you watch a Jan Blachowicz fight live, you may find yourself dozing off…then suddenly reawakened by a bewildering knockout. That’s the Light Heavyweight division in a nutshell. After watching hours of tape on Blachowicz my biggest takeaway from his game is his uncanny patience. As much talk as there is about Polish Power, it doesn’t always result in tantalizing finishes. But the fact that it does sometimes, is a part of Blachowicz’s charm.
A glaring weakness in Blachowicz’s game is how reactive and willing to concede space he is to opponent’s, even when they’re not feinting or pressuring. Often Blachowicz’s gas tank is effected by not being given the opportunity to lead or initiate exchanges, it’s a matchup he’s struggled with in the past. When Blachowicz has to close range, it’s in the form of slow linear blitzes where his punches arch outside his frame, leaving him vulnerable to counters. Blachowicz occasionally jabs but it’s not setup by any form of feints or manipulated rhythm. He randomly tosses it out there most of the time while stationary and under the same cadence, making it predictable enough to avoid or counter.
I’m thinking about the success that Gastelum had against Adesanya and trying to find avenues for Jan to replicate it. But, Jan’s not ridiculously durable or willing to eat shots to land his own like Gastelum. When Jan gets threatened with a counter it seemingly stops him from exchanging. His combinations are extremely conventional nothing Izzy hasn’t seen. He doesn’t particularly initiate grappling unless he’s cornered or under serious pressure, rarely does he shoot for singles in open-space. Jan’s not a consistent enough reactive takedown threat and his top game isn’t noteworthy enough to make Adesanya respect it.
When Adesanya is leading he usually gives opponents enough space to breathe and gives them a side to exit on (that way they never feel imminent danger or the urgency to lash out with counters) and it allows him to corral them into roundkicks. Blachowicz outkicking Dom Reyes isn’t really indicative of being a great kicker. Reyes is porous on the outside and provided little to no answers for Jan’s closed-side bodykicks.
Many of Blachowicz’s recent finishes have been a result of landing when the opponent‘s in a compromising position and unable to comfortably receive the blow. Blachowicz’s footwork off the backfoot isn’t particularly good either, he’ll throw without being in position or having his feet set and with bad punching mechanics and he doesn’t step out at an angle to break linear attacks. His pocket entries are slow, but once inside, he’s a counter threat. When given his preferred distance (2nd round of Rockhold) he can comfortably work his jab, which is why if you’re Blachowicz’s opponent you need to constantly take away his ability to control range and make him reset to prevent him from drawing you into his punches. When Rockhold meandered in his range, he was bonked by Jan’s counter left hook. When you sit inside Jan’s punching range and don’t force him to reset, he can still find well-timed counters in exchanges, even with inferior positioning and unconventional punching mechanics.
Blachowicz vs Cannonier
An unfortunate bit of news for his hopes against Adesanya is; Jan doesn’t check lowkicks until he’s at the point where he has to, which is already too late against a ruthless kicker like Adesanya. Cannonier was able to make Blachowicz respect them, Jan is just so obnoxiously durable that he’ll absorb the first few before turning the shin out. Cannonier was an interesting matchup because at LHW he was committed to pressuring, and would rarely take a step back. Jan’s moments of success came when he mustered the strength to counter Jared’s forward movement with kicks or barrel forward with straight punches and punctuate with roundkicks, effectively alleviating Cannonier’s pressure. Likewise, Cannonier was able to take away Jan’s counter-left hook by drawing it out with jab feints and making Jan fall short. Luckily Jan has a somewhat functional jab when given space, but the problem with his jab is he can get drawn into single-shot exchanges where both men unintentionally accept the premise of “you go, I go” which results in Jan not being able to enforce a pace that’s leading towards a finish, like he did with Reyes. Jan was able to reverse the dynamic and draw Cannonier onto the jab and got him parrying it, then decided to close his combinations with the left hook instead of looking for it as a counter. However, there isn’t much depth to Jared’s offensive toolbox, he’s able to get by on a few consistent weapons, plus his durability and sheer willpower to walk people down helps a lot. If Jan is always in reaction to what the opponent wants to do, it doesn’t bode well for his chances against Adesanya, the best possible candidate to exploit that weakness.
Blachowicz vs Souza
No..
Blachowicz vs Reyes/Rockhold
If given space and time to lead, Jan will skittishly throw lowkicks without a setup. Because Reyes was relatively decent at countering, he was able to time Jan’s lowkicks with his rear hand. However in comparison to Adesanya, he prefers feinting behind a series of stationary and non-committal half-steps, with the intent to draw out the opponent’s ranged weapons while disengaging as they whiff at air. You see this in almost every Izzy fight, it drives opponent’s to the point of second guessing their own entries, or not throwing altogether. So it seems rather unlikely that Jan would have success with a dedicated lowkicking game when he hasn’t shown the capability of setting them up to this point, and his upcoming opponent is efficient at mitigating them. While Jan may be an inconsistent slow-footed technician, he still managed to check and block most of Rockhold’s kicks from the beginning of round one. However, to his demise Rockhold leaned on the newfound power at 205lbs by spamming roundkicks like a Tekken character instead of taking advantage of the fact that Jan can be corralled into kicks because his positioning and defensive reactions are quite predictable.
When Jan’s being kicked he concedes an incredible amount of space even if he blocks the kick (which means more than likely Izzy will be able to use his bodykicks and highkicks, to not only deal damage but as a tool to manage distance whenever he wants). Jan was constantly searching for blitzing combinations punctuated by lead roundkicks against Reyes, they found the mark with consistency as Reyes was baffled by a LHW investing in bodywork. Dom routinely had his guard raised by Jan’s awkward straight punches, leaving his lanky midsection exposed. Some people take this as a sign that Jan can replicate it on Adesanya. I’d disagree for a few reasons, mainly because Adesanya has the ability to break the line of attack and retreat at angles while remaining defensively sound enough to respond back with counters. He also keeps a relatively low-guard because his main line of defense is head movement, meaning his elbows are always tucked in to protect the body. This low-guard also helps to disguise his punches and get underhooks on TD attempts. Despite Adesanya’s perceived struggles against Marvin Vettori, he was still able to shutdown the kicks with functional defense and was able to employ his game on a big, durable MW.
It’s worth noting that Reyes was constantly able to stay outside of Jan’s reach, while circling and exiting towards Jan’s power side with L-steps to retake open-space. Izzy more than likely will be able to fluctuate between keeping Jan constantly turning to make him reset his feet and leading Jan onto strikes while always having a safe exit. Even though Adesanya has multi-layered directional changes from the pocket, he may not even need that depth here. The speed advantage alone will be difficult enough for Jan to overcome but the addition of superb cagecraft, stellar tactics and a library of techniques to pull from, means Jan will be facing near insurmountable odds. As he’s standing across from a LHW who won’t self implode.
Downward Elbow 